You are here: Home Published Research A steady-state, population-based model to estimate the direct and indirect effects of pneumococcal vaccines.

Sandra E Talbird, Afisi S Ismaila, and Thomas N Taylor (2010)

A steady-state, population-based model to estimate the direct and indirect effects of pneumococcal vaccines.

Vaccine, 28 Suppl 6:G3–13.

This paper estimated the clinical impact of routine vaccination of infants with a new 10-valent pneumococcal nontypeable Haemophilus influenzae protein D conjugate vaccine (PHiD-CV) compared with the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV-7) and no vaccination in Canada using a new steady-state, population-based model. A deterministic, compartmental model was developed to simulate the effect of vaccination for a 1-year time period for a steady-state population, allowing for the incorporation of herd and replacement effects across all age groups. Annual clinical outcomes in the steady-state year for a population of 32.9 million were calculated for all three vaccination strategies. The no vaccination strategy was included for the purpose of validating the model. The model estimated that PHiD-CV prevented more cases of disease and more deaths than PCV-7 and no vaccination, with the largest incremental impact on acute otitis media (AOM). Compared with PCV-7, vaccination with PHiD-CV was estimated to prevent an additional 10 cases of invasive disease, 416 cases of pneumonia, 155,757 cases of AOM, 8943 myringotomy procedures, and 6 deaths nationwide. For the comparison between PCV-7 and no vaccination, the model estimated a 36.8% reduction in invasive disease; this result was similar to other models and a recent observational study in Canada, providing preliminary validation of the model.

Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Canada, Child, Child, Preschool, Female, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Male, Middle Aged, Models, Statistical, Pneumococcal Infections, Pneumococcal Vaccines, Young Adult
Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Canada, Child, Child, Preschool, Female, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Male, Middle Aged, Models, Statistical, Pneumococcal Infections, Pneumococcal Vaccines, Young Adult
 
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